Republicans positioned to expand in the South in 2014

To:                  Republican Legislative Leaders and Interested Parties
From:             Justin Richards, Republican State Leadership Committee Political Director
Re:                  Republicans positioned to expand in the South in 2014
Date:               May 22, 2014

---

Building the Republican South – Arkansas
Today begins the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee’s (RLCC) Southern Regional Meeting, bringing together more than 20 legislative leaders from key states to strategize and weigh the Republican Party’s plans to expand solid control across the South this November. The RLCC is the Republican State Leadership Committee’s caucus dedicated exclusively to electing Republicans to state legislatures.

Since 2010, the RSLC has invested more than $10 million in Southern states, alone, protecting GOP legislative majorities and helping to pick up and hold new majorities in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and North Carolina.

Now, from Texas to North Carolina, Republicans control the majority of seats in every legislative chamber.  Republicans hold veto-proof majorities - Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina and Tennessee.

We have seen the growing national attention on state level elections and aim to target our resources and attention to key defensive opportunities and pick up opportunities across the nation, including in Arkansas.

2014 Southern Region Most Vulnerable Majorities

Defense: Arkansas House

In 2012, Republicans won control of both chambers for the first time since Reconstruction.

The House is narrowly divided with 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 1 Green Party member.  This cycle, Republicans fielded a record number of women on the ballot, including 17 first time candidates, recognized as part of the RSLC’s “Right Women, Right Now” program.

There are at least five open seat races in competitive districts that are currently held by Democrats.  The RLCC has identified an additional four freshmen Democrats as vulnerable after winning by less than 1,000 votes in 2012. Republicans must protect similarly narrow victories in only two districts.

National Implications 
We know that Republican led states are open for business.  Republican led states have the fastest growing incomes and the lowest tax burdens. Republicans currently control 59 of the 99 state legislative chambers nationwide.  Beyond legislative seats and our 29 governorships we hold Republican majorities for other statewide elected offices including 28 lieutenant governors and 28 secretaries of state seats.

In George Mason University’s Mercatus Center ranking of state’s fiscal health, Republican led states are in the best shape, taking the top five spots. The Fiscal Times’ 2014 list of “Best States for Taxes” was dominated by states with Republican legislatures.  The red states took four of the top five and seven of the top 10 spots. CNBC noted for 2013 that nine of the top 10 states for business were states completely controlled by Republican legislatures.

Voters like what they see and continue to elect Republicans at the state level.  Four years ago, Republicans controlled both the legislature and governors’ mansion in just eight states. Today, the number is 24.

In 2010, Republicans gained a total of 708 seats across the country, which led to a pickup of 20 chambers. Republicans hold veto-proof majorities in 16 states—a gain of three during the 2012 election that sent Obama back to the White House.

Conclusions
Poll after poll this year has shown it’s a strong year for Republicans.  Just this week Politico’s polling of swing districts for the 2014 election, including in Arkansas, noted that:

“In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference.

“Among these critical voters, Obama’s job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over, compared with 39 percent who echo the president’s position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded.

“Both Obama’s job approval and the partisan ballot matchup are markedly more negative for Democrats in this poll than other national surveys — a reflection of the political reality that the midterm campaign is being fought on turf that is more challenging for Democrats than the nation as a whole.”

Time and again, Republican Southern states get high marks for the best states to do business, the best states for competitiveness and the states with the best tax climate.  Republican leaders and majorities in these states are consistently reelected because conservative policies work.  Building on this track record of success, the RLCC Republicans have the opportunity to solidify their majorities across the South from Texas to North Carolina and win control in three additional chambers in Kentucky and West Virginia.

The RLCC is prepared to invest substantially in legislative races across the South, and is already in advanced stages working within target states on the strategies that will lead to victory in 2014. Voters know which policies are advancing their states in the right direction, and therefore will choose Republicans to maintain and expand upon their strength in the southern states.