MEMO: VOTER INTENSITY GIVES COTTON NOVEMBER ADVANTAGE

May 21, 2014 by Team Cotton Leave a Comment

Little Rock, Arkansas —

It’s no secret that voter enthusiasm has been on the side of Republicans for the 2014 midterm elections. While that trend has held steady nationally for several months, it was on full display last night in the Arkansas primary, where for the first time since the Civil War, Republicans out-voted Democrats in a statewide primary election.

Last night, Arkansas voters cast 176,783 Republican primary ballots to the Democrats’ 150,101. That’s a 32.4% increase in GOP primary voting from 2010. Even more impressive is the fact that Arkansas Republicans surpassed even their 2012 primary total by 18.3% last night.

As our friends at the Arkansas GOP pointed out after a lopsided special election in a traditionally Democrat district in January, the electoral ground is shifting beneath Senator Mark Pryor’s feet in Arkansas. Last night, the Associated Press wrote: “Tuesday’s primary highlighted Arkansas’ transformation from a Democratic stronghold in the south to a state where Republicans have made gains up and down the ballot.”

Don’t believe us? Consider this: in major (top-10) counties like Saline and Garland, the GOP outperformed their 2010 primary vote totals by 69% and 71%, respectively. And in crucial counties where Senator Pryor carried over 55% of the 2002 vote, Republicans out-voted Democrats (Pulaski, Craighead)

Voter enthusiasm is a significant factor in an off-year election when turnout is much lower than a Presidential year. It is even more significant when one takes into account that voters are less excited about the 2014 midterms than any election in at least a decade, according to The Washington Post. That goes without mentioning that the incumbent U.S. Senator  doesn’t exactly inspire an enthusiastic following. It’s the same reason why polls that do not screen for likely voters are just wishful thinking for Arkansas Democrats.

The Washington Post said it best recently: “Guess who votes in midterms — and particularly the second midterm of a president’s tenure? Yup — people who are ‘strongly interested’ in politics.  And therein lies the Democrats’ problem.”

To paraphrase President Obama, Arkansas Republicans are fired up, and they’re ready to see Mark Pryor go.

- See more at: http://www.tomcotton.com/2014/05/voters-give-cotton-advantage/#sthash.xjgaRQDA.dpuf